Interest rates, inflation, growth and employment.
Prediction markets
The world's expectations,
priced.
Prediction markets turn what people expect to happen into measurable probabilities. Almost anything with a measurable outcome can become one.
Every line behind this text is a real market's price over the last 24 hours.
Live marketTap YES or NO
Loading the busiest market right now…
Last 24 hours
How they work
A price is
a probability.
- 01
A clear question
Every market asks something with a measurable outcome, and a date by which it will be known.
- 02
People take a view
Participants buy YES or NO depending on what they expect to happen.
- 03
The price forms
A YES price of 63 means the market, as a whole, sees a 63% chance.
- 04
It keeps moving
As new information arrives, the price moves, often within moments.
Watch a price move · real market
–
–→–over the last 24 hours
The marked point is the biggest single move in the period. Jumps like this happen when new information reaches the market and people re-price what they expect.
Four words to know
The language of
prediction markets.
- i.Implied probability
- The price read as a percentage. A YES price of 63 means the market, as a whole, sees a 63% chance.
- ii.Liquidity
- How much is available to trade at the current price. Deeper markets tend to have steadier, more reliable prices.
- iii.Volume
- How much has been traded over a period, such as the last 24 hours. A sign of how much attention a question is getting.
- iv.Resolution
- The moment the outcome is known and the market settles: YES pays out if it happened, NO if it didn't.
What they cover
Almost any outcome
can be measured.
A real market from each area, at its current price.
Companies, benchmarks and digital assets.
Launches, breakthroughs and AI.
Film, music and awards.
Votes, policy and agreements.
Results, tournaments and seasons.
The scale
A global category,
moving fast.
~$1.2Ba month · early 2025
~17×in about a year
$20B+a month · Jan 2026
Monthly volume across prediction markets · TRM Labs, Mar 2026
840K
Monthly unique wallets, nearly tripling in the six months to February 2026.
TRM Labs · Mar 2026$22B
Kalshi's valuation after a $1B Series F led by Coatue.
Sports Illustrated · May 2026$2B
Committed to Polymarket by ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange.
ICE · Oct 2025Live now – open markets · – traded in 24h
Kalshi and Polymarket are cited as independent industry references only. Royce Markets is not affiliated with, endorsed by or partnered with either.
Why they matter
Markets as information.
74%of the time
The market is closer to the eventual outcome 74% of the time.
Because people put value behind their views, prediction markets tend to absorb new information quickly. Long-running research has found them to be a strong forecasting tool.
Where Quantix fits
Millions of participants.
Constant change.
Prediction markets are turning the world's expectations into measurable probabilities, and those probabilities never stop moving. What if technology could analyse all of it?
Loading live markets
Regulation of prediction markets is still evolving and availability varies by country. Platforms are named on this site only as independent references to the category. Figures come from the linked sources and describe the industry, not Royce Markets.