Perspectives
The category,
in their
words.
What exchange leaders, technologists and researchers have said and done about prediction markets. Every quote and figure links to its original source.
…prediction markets even as they exist today are a very useful tool for the world…
The market is closer to the eventual outcome 74% of the time.
…we've traded more contracts, at about 2.5 billion, than all of Q3 put together.
Voices
What leaders
have said.
Our new event contracts on benchmarks, economic indicators and now sports will appeal to a new generation of potential participants who are not active in these markets today.
…prediction markets even as they exist today are a very useful tool for the world…
…you can be more informed by reading the news and the charts, than by reading either one alone.
…we've traded more contracts, at about 2.5 billion, than all of Q3 put together. So that's been ramping extremely quickly.
Institutions
What institutions
have done.
Eight months that moved prediction markets from niche to mainstream.
- Oct 2025$2B
The owner of the New York Stock Exchange commits up to $2 billion
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced it would put up to $2 billion into Polymarket, at a valuation of about $8 billion before the deal.
ICE announcement, 7 Oct 2025 - Oct 20252.5B
A retail brokerage trades 2.5 billion contracts in a month
Robinhood reported about 2.5 billion prediction-market contracts traded in October 2025, more than in the whole of the previous quarter.
Fortune, 6 Nov 2025 - Nov 2025CME
A leading derivatives exchange moves in
CME Group and FanDuel announced FanDuel Predicts, a prediction-markets app with event contracts on benchmarks, economic indicators and sports, launching in December 2025.
CME Group, 12 Nov 2025 - Jan 2026$20B+
Monthly volume passes $20 billion
Monthly volume across prediction markets passed $20 billion, from about $1.2 billion in early 2025, with geopolitics, macroeconomics and politics now driving most activity.
The Block, citing TRM Labs, 27 Mar 2026 - May 2026$22B
A $22 billion valuation
Kalshi closed a $1 billion Series F led by Coatue, at a $22 billion valuation, with Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm and Morgan Stanley among those taking part.
Sports Illustrated, May 2026
Research
What the evidence
shows.
The market is closer to the eventual outcome 74% of the time.
…the market significantly outperforms the polls in every election when forecasting more than 100 days in advance.
These quotes and facts are shown as independent views of, and developments in, the prediction-market category. None of the people or organisations named are affiliated with, endorse or partner with Royce Markets. Logos and photographs are deliberately not used. Quotes are reproduced from the linked sources.
